Any degree of climate change poses huge risks, but on the basis of the work carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) many including the European Union have agreed that a rise in temperature of more than 2ºC is “dangerous”, and that policies should aim to contain the rise below that level.

The higher the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere the lower the probability of keeping below 2ºC; the current concentration is 385ppm, over 100ppm greater than pre-industrial levels and growing faster every year.

The more progressive participants in the global climate change negotiations are pushing for the stabilisation of GHG concentrations at around 450ppm; this would require a greater than 50% reduction in global GHG emissions compared with 1990 levels and even then would provide only a c. 50% probability of not exceeding a 2ºC temperature rise (Meinshausen 2006, see link below). A level of 350ppm would reduce the probability to around 10% and require a greater than 80% reduction in global GHG emissions by 2050.

Seas At Risk believes that the risks associated with even a 2ºC rise in temperature are too great and that public policy must be substantially more ambitious than aiming at a 50% probability of keeping below that level. Indeed recent science (e.g., Hansen 2008, see link below) suggests that the IPCC have underestimated the seriousness of the climate change problem, and that, in the words of Hansen “if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilisation developed and to which life on Earth is adapted” 350ppm should be considered as a maximum stabilisation level.

Warming above 2ºC is unthinkable. Keeping warming well below 2ºC is still possible, but will require a massive effort from all countries and all economic sectors, with those who contribute most to GHG emissions having the greatest responsibility.

For information on GHG emissions & shipping click here

For information on GHG emissions & fisheries click here

Details of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and their latest report "Climate Change 2007" are available on their web site.

The EU's contribution to shaping the future global climate change regime can be found on a special web page.

The web site of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) contains the latest news of global climate change negotiations.

European Environment Agency assessment of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (April 2008).

Squaring up to reality (29/5/08).

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? (Hansen et al, 2008).

"Emission pathways and concentration levels under a 2º C climate target": a presentation by Dr Malte Meinshausen to the European Parliament (September 2007).

Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (30/10/06).

For more general information and news on the climate change issue visit the Climate Action Network web site below.

The Green Facts web site provides a useful summary of the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report.